Predictive modelling is a rapidly developing area in public health. Already widely applied in predictive studies of interventions such as vaccination, modeling is a key input to policy and planning decisions in public health. Understanding how trends in disease will unfold in future years helps policy makers evaluate and prepare for future priorities. The focus in this course is on building predictive models of disease trends in excel and on assessing the value of modelling results for policy. The course is run over 4 days in a workshop format, with additional activities and demonstrations posted online to reinforce concepts.

The key learning outcomes from the course are:

1.Discuss and explain the value of modelling approaches in policy formulation and planning for disease prevention and control

2.Assess the suitability of a modelling approach to address policy questions in relation to disease prevention and control

3.Understand, design and construct single-cohort models for demographic and disease risk projections in Excel

4.Extend single-cohort models to whole of population models for projecting disease incidence through time

5.Implement disease interventions in projective models applied to case-studies from both communicable and non-communicable disease